By most accounts 2010 was the year of Tea Party. Not only did Republicans take control of the House, increase their numbers in the Senate, and gain ground virtually across the board, but conservative challengers had a good batting average against establishment favorites in GOP primaries.
This time the environment is less certain. Nobody knows how Republicans will fare in the general election, and there are fewer high-profile primaries along the lines of Marco Rubio versus Charlie Crist or Rand Paul versus Trey Grayson. Endangered Republican incumbents, like Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Robert Bennett in Utah, are even rarer.
Yet the potential for Tea Party upsets still exists. While the lead in Ohio’s Republican presidential primary seesawed back and forth between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, Buckeye State voters prepared one such surprise. Three-term Congresswoman Jean Schmidt unexpectedly lost her bid for re-nomination in the March 6 primary. She was beaten by Brad Wenstrup, a physician and Iraq War veteran who ran hard to her right and had never held elected office before.
Wenstrup followed a familiar script. Though outspent by the incumbent, he enjoyed outside support from Tea Party groups, whose super PACs helped narrow the money gap. He criticized Schmidt’s vote to raise the debt ceiling and made hay of a photo of the congresswoman smooching President Barack Obama, an image as endearing to conservative voters as Jimmy Carter kissing Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. While Schmidt had never been personally popular—she sneaked into office in a 2005 special election and was usually reelected only by pluralities in one of Ohio’s most Republican congressional districts—her defeat served as a reminder that grassroots activists can still make waves in GOP primaries.
“Wenstrup’s Tea Party victory in Ohio was completely under the radar of the national media, and demonstrates that the dynamics of the 2010 election are still at work,” wrote conservative fundraising pioneer Richard Viguerie. He argued that even unsuccessful primary challenges have a positive impact by motivating voters, identifying new activists, and preparing candidates for future campaigns. The title of Viguerie’s missive? Paraphrasing Clinton campaign guru James Carville, “It’s the primaries, stupid.”
